Working Papers
Determinants of intended return migration among refugees: A comparison of Syrian refugees in Germany and Turkey
[Revision submitted to International Migration Review]
with Nawras Al Husein
This study assesses whether Syrian refugees intend to return to Syria, taking account of the economic, cultural and institutional differences between their country of origin and the host country. We develop a simple theoretical model on return migration and optimal duration of stay in the host country to identify the potential trade-offs faced by refugees. We then assess the theoretical predictions empirically with a sample of 577 Syrian refugees living in Germany and Turkey. Three return scenarios are considered: (i) ever returning, (ii) returning when it is as safe in Syria as before the war, and (iii) returning within two years. Refugees in the immediately neighbouring country of Turkey are more likely to regard their stay as temporary (76%) compared to those who fled to geographically more distant Germany (55%, p-value of difference=0.000). Concerning the correlates of intended return, we observe that socio-demographic and economic characteristics tend to have limited predictive power for re-migration intentions, independent of the host country. Similarly, while refugees value freedom of speech and belief, the existence of these liberties does not feed into the return migration decision in either of the host countries. Thus, attempts to impose these values on the Assad Government are unlikely to trigger mass return movement. From a policy perspective, we analyse whether random exposure to positive or negative information regarding return migration impacts on the refugees’ intentions. We find no systematic impact on the decision to migrate back. This demonstrates that host governments cannot expect (rapid) information disseminated by refugee agencies – even if it provides support – to impact the refugees’ decision making about return. Overall, the analysis suggests that neither proximate nor distant host countries should bank on the speedy return of the Syrian refugees but should focus on refugee integration, independently of how long they intend to stay.
Cash instead of subsidy: Assessing the impact of the Iranian energy subsidy reform on households
[Minor Revision from Energy Policy]
with Zahra Zarepour
The 2010 energy subsidy reform in Iran is a unique case of redistributive policy as the savings from the subsidy cut have been redirected to households as unconditional, universal cash transfer. While theoretically, the cash transfer was large enough to keep the utility of the average household at the initial level, this study explores the practical impacts of the reform. We analyze panel data on income/expenditure of Iranian households for the period 2010-2012. Since this is a universal reform, we exploit the time dimension and the intensity of energy consumption in the identification and assess the robustness of the results with additional specifications (mazut price), sub-sample and placebo analyses. Overall, the energy subsidy reform caused a significant shrinkage (7%-9%) in households’ real consumption. The cash transfer failed in compensating the negative impact of the subsidy removal. Yet, the impact is heterogeneous, varying along the intensity of energy consumption, geographical location, income and the share of the cash transfer in a household’s income. A non-negligible policy accomplishment of the reform is that within its first two years poverty was mitigated in absolute and relative terms and income inequality slightly improved. Nevertheless, the government is under pressure because inflation counteracts these gains.
How manufacturing firms respond to energy subsidy reforms? An impact assessment of the Iranian Energy Subsidy Reform
[Under Review with Energy Economics]
with Zahra Zarepour
Energy prices increased several folds due to the 2010 Iranian Energy Subsidy Reform. This study assesses the impact of the reform on the performance of manufacturing firms using a detailed micro-panel dataset at the 4-digit ISIC level for the period 2009 to 2013. Since the reform universally affected all firms, the analysis relies on a quasi-experimental framework implementing first an explorative before-after design with structural fixed-effects and second a difference-in-difference analysis exploiting energy dependence. the subsidy removal caused a shrinkage in output and manufacturing value-added of at least 3 and 7%, respectively. This results in a deterioration of profits by nearly 9%. Manufacturing firms have been affected through three channels: increasing costs of direct energy inputs, pass-through costs for inputs from upstream firms and an energy-price-induced demand contraction. To successfully implement an energy subsidy reform while maintaining growth in the manufacturing sector, not only the direct but also the indirect, pass-through effects have to be considered since capital or technology-led responses to mitigate negative repercussions in the short-run are unlikely at large scale. The results can inform expected energy reforms to mitigate climate change.
A game worth the candle? Meta-analysis of the effects of formalization on firm performance
[Under Review with Journal of Developmental Entrepreneurship]
with Andrea Floridi and Binyam Afewerk Demena
Does formalization generate benefits for previously informal firms? We systematically assessed 22 primary studies in a meta-analysis of African, Asian and Latin American firms. The studies are published between 2011 and 2021 and provide 1,372 performance estimates: 40% of the estimates show significantly positive and 54% insignificant effects. The FAT-PET analysis suggests a small impact of formalization on firm performance. We also employ a multivariate analysis: The overall genuine effect is modest. There is a positive role for information and time for effects to materialize. Notably, more rigorous designs and recent studies tend to identify smaller and more dispersed effects. Since firms that formalize after policy interventions report higher benefits compared to self-induced formalization, policymakers aiming for regulation are supported by the existing findings. Yet, we need further experimenting and fine-tuning to more precisely identify what makes formalization worth the effort.
Experiential marketing of clean drinking water: Experimental evidence for Kenya and Rwanda
[Under Review with Review of Development Economics]
with Rachel Howell and Kinsuk Mani Sinha
To date limited work investigates why and how consumers in emerging markets make consumption decisions. With the rise in demand for clean drinking water in sub-Sahara Africa, a field experiment was conducted on non-consumers of two socially oriented drinking water companies providing low cost re-usable bottled drinking water in Kenya and Rwanda. Non-consumers were randomly divided into two groups to address whether the provision of purchase-related information and exposure to a physical experience (free sample) increase purchase. For both countries, information motivated purchase (49% for Kenya, 67% for Rwanda) but purchase was even higher among those who received the free sample (67% for Kenya, 78% for Rwanda, p-value<5%). Similarly, planned future purchase and the purchase frequency were significantly increased in the treatment group. The results suggest that similar to consumers in developed markets, emerging market consumers may not only consume on the basis of price, but rather having an experience with a product can minimize purchase risk.
Determinants of intended return migration among refugees: A comparison of Syrian refugees in Germany and Turkey
[Revision submitted to International Migration Review]
with Nawras Al Husein
This study assesses whether Syrian refugees intend to return to Syria, taking account of the economic, cultural and institutional differences between their country of origin and the host country. We develop a simple theoretical model on return migration and optimal duration of stay in the host country to identify the potential trade-offs faced by refugees. We then assess the theoretical predictions empirically with a sample of 577 Syrian refugees living in Germany and Turkey. Three return scenarios are considered: (i) ever returning, (ii) returning when it is as safe in Syria as before the war, and (iii) returning within two years. Refugees in the immediately neighbouring country of Turkey are more likely to regard their stay as temporary (76%) compared to those who fled to geographically more distant Germany (55%, p-value of difference=0.000). Concerning the correlates of intended return, we observe that socio-demographic and economic characteristics tend to have limited predictive power for re-migration intentions, independent of the host country. Similarly, while refugees value freedom of speech and belief, the existence of these liberties does not feed into the return migration decision in either of the host countries. Thus, attempts to impose these values on the Assad Government are unlikely to trigger mass return movement. From a policy perspective, we analyse whether random exposure to positive or negative information regarding return migration impacts on the refugees’ intentions. We find no systematic impact on the decision to migrate back. This demonstrates that host governments cannot expect (rapid) information disseminated by refugee agencies – even if it provides support – to impact the refugees’ decision making about return. Overall, the analysis suggests that neither proximate nor distant host countries should bank on the speedy return of the Syrian refugees but should focus on refugee integration, independently of how long they intend to stay.
Cash instead of subsidy: Assessing the impact of the Iranian energy subsidy reform on households
[Minor Revision from Energy Policy]
with Zahra Zarepour
The 2010 energy subsidy reform in Iran is a unique case of redistributive policy as the savings from the subsidy cut have been redirected to households as unconditional, universal cash transfer. While theoretically, the cash transfer was large enough to keep the utility of the average household at the initial level, this study explores the practical impacts of the reform. We analyze panel data on income/expenditure of Iranian households for the period 2010-2012. Since this is a universal reform, we exploit the time dimension and the intensity of energy consumption in the identification and assess the robustness of the results with additional specifications (mazut price), sub-sample and placebo analyses. Overall, the energy subsidy reform caused a significant shrinkage (7%-9%) in households’ real consumption. The cash transfer failed in compensating the negative impact of the subsidy removal. Yet, the impact is heterogeneous, varying along the intensity of energy consumption, geographical location, income and the share of the cash transfer in a household’s income. A non-negligible policy accomplishment of the reform is that within its first two years poverty was mitigated in absolute and relative terms and income inequality slightly improved. Nevertheless, the government is under pressure because inflation counteracts these gains.
How manufacturing firms respond to energy subsidy reforms? An impact assessment of the Iranian Energy Subsidy Reform
[Under Review with Energy Economics]
with Zahra Zarepour
Energy prices increased several folds due to the 2010 Iranian Energy Subsidy Reform. This study assesses the impact of the reform on the performance of manufacturing firms using a detailed micro-panel dataset at the 4-digit ISIC level for the period 2009 to 2013. Since the reform universally affected all firms, the analysis relies on a quasi-experimental framework implementing first an explorative before-after design with structural fixed-effects and second a difference-in-difference analysis exploiting energy dependence. the subsidy removal caused a shrinkage in output and manufacturing value-added of at least 3 and 7%, respectively. This results in a deterioration of profits by nearly 9%. Manufacturing firms have been affected through three channels: increasing costs of direct energy inputs, pass-through costs for inputs from upstream firms and an energy-price-induced demand contraction. To successfully implement an energy subsidy reform while maintaining growth in the manufacturing sector, not only the direct but also the indirect, pass-through effects have to be considered since capital or technology-led responses to mitigate negative repercussions in the short-run are unlikely at large scale. The results can inform expected energy reforms to mitigate climate change.
A game worth the candle? Meta-analysis of the effects of formalization on firm performance
[Under Review with Journal of Developmental Entrepreneurship]
with Andrea Floridi and Binyam Afewerk Demena
Does formalization generate benefits for previously informal firms? We systematically assessed 22 primary studies in a meta-analysis of African, Asian and Latin American firms. The studies are published between 2011 and 2021 and provide 1,372 performance estimates: 40% of the estimates show significantly positive and 54% insignificant effects. The FAT-PET analysis suggests a small impact of formalization on firm performance. We also employ a multivariate analysis: The overall genuine effect is modest. There is a positive role for information and time for effects to materialize. Notably, more rigorous designs and recent studies tend to identify smaller and more dispersed effects. Since firms that formalize after policy interventions report higher benefits compared to self-induced formalization, policymakers aiming for regulation are supported by the existing findings. Yet, we need further experimenting and fine-tuning to more precisely identify what makes formalization worth the effort.
Experiential marketing of clean drinking water: Experimental evidence for Kenya and Rwanda
[Under Review with Review of Development Economics]
with Rachel Howell and Kinsuk Mani Sinha
To date limited work investigates why and how consumers in emerging markets make consumption decisions. With the rise in demand for clean drinking water in sub-Sahara Africa, a field experiment was conducted on non-consumers of two socially oriented drinking water companies providing low cost re-usable bottled drinking water in Kenya and Rwanda. Non-consumers were randomly divided into two groups to address whether the provision of purchase-related information and exposure to a physical experience (free sample) increase purchase. For both countries, information motivated purchase (49% for Kenya, 67% for Rwanda) but purchase was even higher among those who received the free sample (67% for Kenya, 78% for Rwanda, p-value<5%). Similarly, planned future purchase and the purchase frequency were significantly increased in the treatment group. The results suggest that similar to consumers in developed markets, emerging market consumers may not only consume on the basis of price, but rather having an experience with a product can minimize purchase risk.
